The Non-homogeneous Poisson Process for Fast Radio Burst Rates

This paper presents the non-homogeneous Poisson process (NHPP) for modeling the rate of fast radio bursts (FRBs) and other infrequently observed astronomical events. The NHPP, well-known in statistics, can model changes in the rate as a function of both astronomical features and the details of an observing campaign. This is particularly helpful for rare events like FRBs because the NHPP can combine information across surveys, making the most of all available information. The goal of the paper is two-fold. First, it is intended to be a tutorial on the use of the NHPP. Second, we build an NHPP model that incorporates beam patterns and a power law flux distribution for the rate of FRBs. Using information from 12 surveys including 15 detections, we find an all-sky FRB rate of 586.88 events per sky per day above a flux of 1 Jy (95\% CI: 271.86, 923.72) and a flux power-law index of 0.91 (95\% CI: 0.57, 1.25). Our rate is lower than other published rates, but consistent with the rate given in Champion et al. 2016.Comment: 19 pages, 2 figure

A VLBI Proper Motion Analysis of the Recoiling Supermassive Black Hole Candidate Mrk 1018

Mrk 1018 is a nearby changing-look AGN that has oscillated between spectral Type 1.9 and Type 1 over a period of 40 years. Recently, a recoiling supermassive black hole (rSMBH) scenario has been proposed to explain the spectral and flux variability observed in this AGN. Detections of rSMBHs are important for understanding the processes by which SMBH binaries merge and how rSMBHs influence their galactic environment through feedback mechanisms. However, conclusive identification of any rSMBHs has remained elusive to date. In this paper, we present an analysis of 6.5 years of multi-frequency Very Long Baseline Array (VLBA) monitoring of Mrk 1018. We find that the radio emission is compact down to 2.4 pc, and displays flux density and spectral variability over the length of our campaign, typical of a flat spectrum radio core. We observe proper motion in RA of the radio core at -36.4 $\pm$ 8.6 $\mu$as yr$^{-1}$ (4.2$\sigma$), or $0.10c \pm 0.02c$ at the redshift of Mrk 1018. No significant proper motion is found in DEC (31.3 $\pm$ 25.1 $\mu$as yr$^{-1}$). We discuss possible physical mechanisms driving the proper motion, including a rSMBH. We conclude that the apparent velocity we observe of the VLBI radio core is too high to reconcile with theoretical predictions of rSMBH velocities and that the proper motion is most likely dominated by an unresolved, outflowing jet component. Future observations may yet reveal the true nature of Mrk 1018. However, our observations are not able to confirm it as a true rSMBH.Comment: 17 pages, 7 figures, 3 tables; accepted for publication in Ap

Supermassive Black-hole Demographics & Environments With Pulsar Timing Arrays

Precision timing of large arrays (>50) of millisecond pulsars will detect the nanohertz gravitational-wave emission from supermassive binary black holes within the next ~3-7 years. We review the scientific opportunities of these detections, the requirements for success, and the synergies with electromagnetic instruments operating in the 2020s.Comment: Submitted to the Astro2020 Decadal Survey. One of 5 core white-papers authored by members of the NANOGrav Collaboration. 9 pages, 2 figure